Fantasy projections you can actually argue with

An open projection model built from per-game pace, expected games, and team context — calibrated against the last two NFL seasons. Every number shows its work.

What's live today

v2.0 of the projection model powers every page below. Pick your starting point.

Rankings

Multi-source ADP next to our v3 projections, with 7-day movers and the +/- vs ADP delta on every row.

Tiers

Players grouped by tier-break gap analysis. See where the cliffs are before the room reaches them.

Trade Analyzer

VBD over a positional baseline plus stud-weighted aggregation. Knows that one stud beats two mids.

Mock Draft

Practice your draft against AI opponents with live tier-aware suggestions and an on-the-clock TierWatch panel.

Player Profiles

Every projected player with last-4-season trend sparklines, tier badge, and the projection breakdown.

Methodology

The math, the backtest results, and an interactive κ slider that recomputes a player's projection in your browser.